Presidential Address

President Barack H. Obama Delivers his second Inaugural Address at the 57th Presidential Inauguration. Source: YouTube.com/WhiteHouse.

 

Why the U.S. Economy is Improving

"Cool-Hand Obama’s Atmosphere of Certainty… And Other Reasons Why the U.S. Economy is Improving" by v. johns, 2/15/12, 9:58 PM

I was expecting the unemployment rate to be at about 9 percent flat as of January. As it turns out, since October of 2011, the economy has been trending toward a flat 8 percent. I’m not convinced that a slight uptick in unemployment numbers won’t occur over the summer, since oil prices are headed upwards of 4 dollars per gallon. But, now that Europe’s own debt-default problems are being worked out and the debt-ceiling debacle, here in the U.S., has ended -– and now that the the presidential race of 2012 has begun -- firms can reasonably forecast where to focus their capital.

The economy we feel (employment, consumer spending, etc.) is beginning to catch up with the economy on paper (increased domestic output, consumer confidence, etc.). Among countless other reasons, here are some other possible reasons why:

• OBAMA’S COOL HAND (i.e., THE PRINCIPLE OF CERTAINTY): Like it or not, presidents set the tone for how the nation feels. President Obama’s partisan policy and political shifts from consensus-seeking moderate to unapologetic classic-liberal visionary has helped to create an atmosphere of predictability and certainty about our economy’s ability to move forward. From demands for Congress to “Pass this jobs bill!” to a very noteworthy January State of the Union address in which Obama challenged us to help erect an economy that’s “built to last,” as well as executive orders issued to assist students and homeowners, the President’s “with or without Congress” vision has provided corporations, small businesses, families, and individuals with a sense of certainty about what to expect from Washington (i.e., Congress) until well after the 2012 presidential election: nothing.

• PENT-UP CONSUMER DEMAND: The 2011 holiday season unleashed a solid round of consumer demand that should have been tapped into a year or two earlier. But thanks to the Obama administration’s misreading of 2010 midterm election results and to a Tea-Party led assault on our nation’s full faith and credit, based on their own twisted misreading of those election results as a -- get this -- “mandate,” those years have been wasted. And last Spring, the President’s clashes with Speaker Boehner and his wily bunch of tax-religion zealots culminated into the now infamous debt-ceiling debacle, as legislation to aid homeowners, the newly homeless, students and the unemployed fell by the wayside and was replaced by senseless “debate” over deficits and spending. To President Obama’s credit, his 4-trillion-dollar “Grand Deal”, crafted by Vice President Biden, and others, but abandoned by Boehner and Cantor, would have set the nation on solid fiscal footing for years to come. This, according to CBO figures at the time.

• ROBUST HOLIDAY HIRING: Holiday hiring at the end of 2011 was the highest it’s been in awhile. Once the debt-ceiling debacle ended, oil prices fell and the rough tumble in the markets over the Greece-led debt crisis in Europe subsided, with expectations of help from Germany, the stage was set for many companies to plan for what was one of the longest holiday shopping seasons ever. As early as August, some companies, here in Florida, were placing ads for seasonal workers to apply and get trained. These workers contributed to one of the best holiday shopping seasons in what seemed to be ages.

• HIGHER LABOR COSTS ABROAD: Particularly in China. Labor costs over there have risen to the point of factories shutting down. Some American companies have begun insourcing and relocating factories back on American soil. There has also been allegations of trade-secret theft, by the Communist Chinese government, from U.S. companies that produce higher quality goods there - leaving some large companies to reconsider the risks of setting up shop in China to manufacture high-end goods with sensitive trademarks, patents and processes. Apparently, off-shoring and outsourcing have come home to roost. Insourcing is trending, but not enough to write home about.  Watch this trend, but don’t hold your breath.

Though I have been angry about -- or have made light of --corporations “bitching” about uncertainty, in previous posts, the truth is that, like their large corporate counterparts, small and mid-sized businesses really do need to know what the legislative and regulatory climate are going to look like in order to forecast future needs. I’ll drink to that! But the overall point I was trying to make –- that both companies and consumers need to be proactive in stirring up demand  -- still stands. The President has always realized this and the American people are beginning to recognize and respond to his leadership in this area.

In summary: Despite sharp increases in oil prices last spring, a toxic Democrat vs. Republican and Tea Party debt-ceiling “debate” over the summer, a slight downgrade of ratings on U.S. bonds, in the fall, followed by a market-rattling fear of Greece defaulting on its debt (and potentially creating a European debt-default domino effect), the U.S. economy has been holding steady, through it all, but with a slowly-creeping GDP. The underlying improvement in employment numbers, I believe, has come about as a result of enough companies and consumers being unwilling to depend on anything coming out of Washington, as well as some now-or-never pent-up demand that has been tapped into and maintained. In other words, many Americans have begun taking the health of the economy –- and the nation -- into their own hands.

© 2012 LostParadiseJournal.blogspot.com

River of Grass

"River of Grass, Field of Lost Dreams" by v. johns

While I would like to jump for complete joy in the deal that has been struck between U.S. Sugar and the State of Florida for the company's land to be purchased by the South Florida Water Management District, I question the secrecy of it all. And I dread the possibilities that await those who will no longer wake up early in the morning, in six years, heading off to their job at their company that they have devoted their lives to. And perhaps more than that, I dread the complacency and lack of vision in some of our leaders in the monumental task of, within such a short period of time, securing new companies, if not entire new industries, to replace the one that is destined to be no more.

While the restoration of the entire Everglades ecosystem, a national treasure, is important, how do we weigh its importance against the livelihoods of people who have built their lives and their way of life on one company, one industry? While I don't like the fact that this question must be dealt with, it is what it is and the local leadership out that way must be prepared to step up to the plate, right now, and lobby hard for industries and jobs to replace what is there now and won't be there later. They must if they are to avoid a Detroit-like scenario where the rapid decline of its core industry there, the automotive industry, has left that city a mere shell of its former self.

Yes, I question the timing and the secrecy and the string of "deals" coming out of Tallahassee all of a sudden, but I also see a silver lining in this dark cloud that our leaders and residents may fail to capitalize upon if they do not act fast to secure their futures. Can you imagine a GM plant or a major university branch or a biotech company or a large hotel or a major state government department there? I can. And even without the eminent departure of U.S. Sugar, I've always been an advocate of economic diversification (I studied economics at F.A.M.U., afterall) and have often wondered why leaders in some places in Florida seem to be supremely comfortable with the lack of a diverse tax base to draw from. No one municipal or county or state entity should be severely dependent on any one company or industry for its stability.

Since I haven't done much research or even casual reading, for that matter, on the Glades area, I will refrain from judging their leaders. Especially since there is a general trend in South Florida to neglect its poorer, less-glitzy, lower-profile areas. But I will caution its local city leaders against waiting for the county to propose anything of any reasonable value anytime soon. With every jurisdiction in the state being hammered by unfair and irresponsible state-mandated budget cuts, their pleas may fall on deaf ears...

I doubt that anything short of more land deals or schemes to develop will come out of the minds of state and county leaders. In the years to come, with more people looking for work and possibly toward the coastal areas for that work, I doubt that even the issue of rural access to those jobs via public mass transit will even be on the radar as so much as a blip. The people in the Glades may be in for one long ride when it's all said and done. But one thing is for sure: The State of Florida OWES them! And I don't care how many budget cuts are ripping through the state, if the police in the City of Port Saint Lucie, at such a critical time, can lobby and beat drums for a raise on their salaries, then Belle Glade, Pahokee, South Bay, Clewiston (in Hendry County) and others can beat the door down and demand the replacement of jobs that the state, itself, had a hand in eliminating...